RealSportsFan

ESPNDallas is reporting that the Rangers and Roy Oswalt have agreed to terms.

From the second that Neftali Feliz was put on the DL, rumors of the Rangers bringing in Roy Oswalt began circulating. Fast forward a week or so later…and the rumor mill has intensified to the point that now the Rangers are rumored to be nearing a deal with Oswalt. Let’s examine this possible move a little closer.

Why the Rangers NEED Roy Oswalt

There is no question that the rotation could manage without him for the duration of the regular season, but if the Rangers plan on making another run at a World Series, they will need the starting rotation to step up…especially in the playoffs. Oswalt brings experience, not just as a key starting pitcher, but as an ACE…one who has helped lead a team to a World Series appearance.

One of the knocks on CJ Wilson was that he performed well during the regular season, but was ineffective during the playoffs. Roy Oswalt is 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA for his career in the playoffs.

Oswalt has swing a miss stuff…which is important when a pitcher has men in scoring position and less than 1 out. Pitching to contact is good, but sometimes you need to be able to get an out without having to give up a run. For his career, Oswalt has a 7.3 SO/9 ratio…which is right on par with Alexi Ogando’s career SO/9 ratio. As a comparison, Nolan Ryan had a 9.5 SO/9 ratio for his career.

Why the Rangers DON’T need Roy Oswalt

The main reason the Rangers do not need Roy Oswalt is because they have capable pitchers on the staff that give you similar numbers without the additional cost in terms of salary. The biggest weakness of this current Ranger team in not starting pitching…it’s a right handed power bat off the bench. Sure Snyder and Gentry have done well, but as we’ve seen over the last two years…you can never have enough bats especially if you’re talking about the World Series. Signing Oswalt to a 7.5 mil contract could hurt the Rangers chances of making a big trade at the deadline.

There are MAJOR injury concerns that cannot go ignored. In 2009, when he first started to have injury problems…his ERA jumped to 4.12 and his SO/9 rate dropped to 6.8. He bounced back in 2010 (probably because he was rejuvenated by the trade to Philadelphia), but in 2011 he posted the second worst ERA of his career, the lowest total IP of his career, and his SO/9 rate dropped to a career low 6.0. I have to think that injuries played a big part of his statistical decline.

He has not been as big in the playoffs as you may think. Most of his success was prior to 2006. Since 2010, he is 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs…including starts of 6 IP and 5 ER and 5 IP with 3 ER…not all that impressive.

So, what would JD do?

I think JD (Jon Daniels) would rather not sign Roy Oswalt. That being said, there is no doubt that Nolan Ryan wants Oswalt on this staff…and Nolan usually gets what he wants. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers would need to get approval from the owners to sign Oswalt…Last time I checked, Nolan Ryan was one of the owners. Bob Nightengale of USA Today, says the Rangers “definitely want to sign the right-hander.”

What would you do?

If I was making this decision, I would move Alexi Ogando into the rotation instead of signing Oswalt. The argument against this is that moving Ogando to the rotation would weaken the bullpen. Maybe, but Koji has returned to form and has only allowed 2 runs in 17.1 IP while posting a SO/9 rate of 9.9. I think he could hold down the pen for a while until Neftali Feliz comes back. At which time Feliz would be added to the pen where he could work his way back without the extra strain and pressure of being a starter. This method would still allow some flexibility in terms of trades because the Rangers would not have to take on any more payroll. It would also put Feldman back in a more useful position where he’s been affective.

Last year Ogando was 13-8 with a 3.51 ERA in 169 IP and posted a 6.7 SO/9 ratio. And don’t forget that he made the All Star team as a starter. As a comparison, Oswalt was 9-9 with a 3.69 ERA in 139 IP and posted a career low 6.0 SO/9 ratio. I just don’t see the need to spend 5-8 million dollars on a guy when we have a better option already under contract.

SBNation.com is reporting that Feliz is indeed headed to the DL. Keep in mind that the Rangers have not released an official statement yet, so lets just cross our fingers.

If true, this is not good…not good at all. In fact, it’s one of the biggest concerns I had when the Rangers decided to move Feliz into the rotation during the off season. There have always been at least some concern about Feliz’s work ethic and when a pitcher doesn’t keep his legs in shape, arm problems are inevitable. Hopefully this is just a precaution and nothing is seriously wrong with his arm.

As the article points out, Scott Feldman will take over if/when Feliz is placed on the DL, and Yoshinori Tateyama will get called up from Triple A to fill in that roster spot. Luckily the Rangers do have some solid options in terms of pitching, but it’s never good when one of your young studs has to go on the DL.

Anyone interested in giving Roy Oswalt a call? It’s no secret he really wanted to play for the Rangers…does this possible DL move open the door for the Rangers to go out and sign him? Maybe, but my personal guess (and It’s just a guess) is that Oswalt will not sign with the Rangers

Update: The Rangers have officially confirmed that Feliz will be headed to the DL.